The times they are a-changin’. Famed rock and roll artist Bob Dylan’s legendary words from one of his most renowned songs continue to hold true today, and surely this aphorism can be applied to the music industry of today’s world. Rapid growth in technology and the Internet has led to a plethora of alternative digital options for consumers to use to listen, share and discover new music.
These new, non-traditional media options have been greatly affecting the music industry as we know it, and will continue to influence and transform the way we run our industry in the future. In the next couple of years, one can’t deny that many things will change in the industry. I would like to focus on five specific predictions of ways that the music industry will incorporate non-traditional media in the next five years.
1. Online Music Stores
Digital music downloading services such as iTunes are increasingly becoming a more popular method of finding new music. iTunes is so user friendly and easy that it has come to the point that consumers are even beginning to accept the fact that music isn’t always completely free— with Steve Jobs standardizing the 99 cent download, iTunes purchases are at an all time high and illegal downloading is nowhere near as prevalent as is what is the mid and late 90s. But the real issue with Online Music stores is DRM—consumers purchase the music yet they aren’t able to use it how they want, on the player they desire, and they aren’t allowed to share it as they please.
However, Steve Jobs’ recent statement that all music should be DRM free paired with EMI’s recent declaration that they plan to make all of their music in their catalog DRM free is promising for the Online Music stores. Indie labels are likely to follow suit with the DRM free tunes, and the other big three will likely feel the pressure. In the next five years, not only will all music on online music stores will be DRM free, but consumers will be able to access the stores not just on their home computers, but through their cellular phones, their MP3 players, their cars, and other interactive media devices. Consumers will be able to purchase music universally and use it as they desire through various player outlets.
2. Portable MP3 Players
But with the expansion of universal wiFi in the next five years, I predict that new versions of portable MP3 players won’t just be to play personal libraries of music or video. MP3 players of the future will be all-encompassing units that can connect and share files wirelessly between units (a good idea offered by the Zune that failed because of the limited time offer the sharing allowed.) The players will be able to stream user-customized internet radio and connect to online music stores on demand to access DRM free tunes whenever they want them. While we have progressed much, in five years the portability, connectivity and interactivity will continue to expand and grow in the form on multifaceted units and universal connectivity.
3. Video and Music on Demand
We’ve all heard of TiVo and Video on Demand programs. These digital recording systems have caused uproar in the television industry, with networks worried about losing advertising revenues when consumers begin to watch their TV commercial free. The music industry is also following suit, and programs like Applian have emerged. This program is like TiVo for radio, allowing users to record their favorite radio shows, online music, podcasts and satelittle radio either as a live stream or as a scheduled recording. Users can convert the files to various formats and edit the content into their personal file to enjoy at their discretion.
The fact of the matter less than half of don’t watch the commercials anyway and in the next five years they just aren’t going to put up with it (especially with the emergence of such on-demand technology). Americans are subject to hundreds of advertisements every day, and its becoming to the point that we are becoming blind to the bland advertising we see between our favorite shows and we are changing the channel or turning off the radio when we come to a commercial break. So the first step for the next five years is in the advertisers shoes—we will always be influenced by a killer commercial or marketing plan, but advertisers need to think of alternative methods of grabbing the consumer and the 30-second add just isn’t going to cut it anymore—users want and are going to get their music and their video on demand.
4. Portable Video Games
Video games are becoming a great market for the music industry as well, as the gaming industry is booming and the players themselves are becoming increasingly portable and with improved quality. Many of the games have background music to go along with the game, and this offers another opportunity for the music industry to license their tunes and make money. Additionally, games that revolve around music itself have become increasingly popular—take Guitar Hero the extremely popular interactive guitar playing game which in 2005 won numerous awards including Academy of Interactive Arts & Sciences' Interactive Achievement Awards Game of the Year for 2005 and IGN's Best of 2005 Best Music Game. The original version of the game featured 47 playable songs, 30 of these tracks being of the originals and 17 songs that were the real deal. Guitar Hero 2 came out this last November and includes 64 songs, 40 of them being licensed and 24 independent or bonus tracks. It is clear that the music industry will continue to use video games as an outlet to circulate their music and as a source of income in the next five years, and this outlet is not a bad idea considering the gaming industry is also growing.
Take the iPod for example and its latest addition—the iQuiz. Available via 99 cent download on your iTunes, by downloading iQuiz and you will have four trivia games with questions on pop culture, music, movies and TV. Music Quiz 2 even scans your iPod and tests your knowledge of the music and artists on your personal device. The most promising feature is the iQuizMaker interface, a free downloadable program that allows users to create their own iQuizes about anything they desire and share them with other players. This creative combination of gaming, music, and social networking is only an allusion to the kind of gaming that the future will bring as the world becomes even more technologically advanced and interconnected.
5. Social Networking
The concept was simple when it all started—a website that enables users to create personal profiles and connect with others online. Social networking is no longer such a simple concept today, as social networking sites have expanded to include only specialized groups: everything from couchsurfers to virtual pets to music. These sites are no longer just for socialization, but for sharing of knowledge, videos, music, and even selling themselves to the business market. The MySpace music revolution has actually been the most influential site for the music industry, exponentially expanding the ability for a performer to have their music broadcast. Just a few short years ago, a struggling musician could practically remain hopeless to have their tunes be broadcast to a widespread audience via the radio without the proper connections or record label assistance. However, with the expansion of social networking sites, everyone has the microphone and the whole world can listen to their tunes at the touch of their fingertips. The need for record labels is becoming increasingly obsolete as artists are able to use social networking sites to network, create awareness and build their own fanbase—all digitally. In the next five years, record labels may utilize social networking sites for their benefits, displaying their proudest on their sites for fans to discover new music and connecting artists that sound similar to spread the word digitally in a social networking format. If record labels fail to embrace social networking, the social networking business plan just may be more powerful than the traditional promotion plans that record labels currently hold.
Tomorrow
The music industry is an ever-changing force and of course I can’t even fathom the technology that will be developed in the next five years that could entirely change the music industry as we know it. In my lifetime I have gone from a computer and cell phone free life to a life where I feel dead without my computer and cell phone. It is clear that in the last five years the industry has changed astronomically, and the industry’s hesitation to embrace the changing industry is in actuality its downfall. The music industry still has a chance to grasp the technological crutch and get back on its feet, and I hope that in the next five years they aren’t afraid to leave the shelter and enter the storm. I think that Dylan would approve.